So, magic provides an ideal model on which to base our plans for its less mature cousin: technology. Digitisation should allow us to bring technology so close to this ideal that we'll stop wishing for wishes since we can get more of the experiences we want, quickly and easily, without them. Of course, we're not there yet. We don't feel like wizards. We are frustrated with technology, and digital technology in particular. Digital technologies have evolved, largely driven by the economics of their deployment. There have been a number of attempts to understand 'what it all means' and to drive it this way or that - but we're still not yet living in the magical world that digitisation promises.
Three Digital Epochs
I'd like to stand right back and wave big, broad, simplifying hands over the historical path of digital technologies, in order to get some measure of where we are, and how much further we have to go, on the digital path. There have been two distinct, roughly thirty-year epochs in the history of digital technology so far...
The Linear Epoch (1940-1970) saw the first
electronic computing machines being created for cracking codes
and other military and scientific uses during and after World
War II. This was the epoch during which computers stopped just
'computing', and started being used in business both for
accounts and for simple filing and other record-keeping (we are
stuck with the name 'computer', you'll have noticed).
By the end of the Linear Epoch:
- There were a few computers used by many people;
- Screens were text-only;
- Programming was linear: the computer did what it was told, one thing at a time;
- Interaction was linear: you did what you were told, one thing at a time;
- There were only big computers that didn't talk to each other much;
- It was the heyday of IBM
The Document Web Epoch (1970-2000) was the epoch of
computers taking over from the typewriter, email taking over
from letters and memos, screen presentations taking over from
slides and overheads and the World Wide Web taking over from
dictionaries and encyclopedias.
By the end of the Document Web Epoch:
Now, extrapolating these characteristics forward with unscientific ease...
To achieve digital wizardry, there's still one more Epoch to go:
- Almost everyone has a computer of their own;
- Screens are graphical;
- Programming is structured and multi-tasking;
- Interaction is ad-hoc: you can do what you want when you want;
- Our small computers talk to 'their' big computers all the time;
- It's the heyday of Microsoft
The Reality Web Epoch (2000-2030) will be the epoch of
computers that engineer reality itself - that take over our
daily reality and our technological environment.
By the end of the Reality Web Epoch:
These are not original, or even particularly controversial,
predictions. Many workers in the field would happily agree
with everything I have described. Through these three Epochs,
we have travelled a path from 'one computer/many users' to 'one
user/many computers'; from the one-dimensional to the
three-dimensional; from rigid to fluid; from centralised to
decentralised.
The Reality Web of a couple of decades from now will deliver a
globally-interlinked mesh of 'engineered reality'. In the
Reality Web, computers will merge invisibly and seamlessly into
your surroundings. You will either not know or not care what
is real and what is generated digitally. The Reality Web will
augment the environment with a highly flexible and controllable
'fabric' of merged, digitally-unified and -animated technologies.
- Everyone will be surrounded by many computers;
- Interfaces devices will be 3D, multimedia, multi-sensory;
- Computers will program themselves when we want something;
- Interaction will be transparent (you won't know or care about 'computers');
- The very small computers will talk to each other directly;
- It will be the heyday of everyone and no-one in particular